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To demonstrate the range of population projection results, data for Swaziland and India was collected from the United Nations, the World Bank (WB) and the US Census Bureau (USCB), three of the main sources of population data. The data includes  historical data from 1950 to 2005 and projections from 2010 to 2050. Swaziland was selected because it has the highest rate of HIV/AIDS prevalence and predicting the long term pattern of population growth will require making estimates about the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic.  India is the second most populous country in the world with low crude death rates and declining crude birth rates.

Variations between projections are often due to different assumptions on birth and death rates. A description of the assumptions underlying the UN population projections is available at http://esa.un.org/unpp/index.asp?panel=4 .  While a description of the assumptions made by USCB http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/estandproj.php .  The WB, USCB and UN Medium projections are the "best guesses" by these organizations.  The UN High and Low projections provide and upper and lower range for their projection while the UN's constant projection is based on existing growth rates.

The estimates for Swaziland show that the USCB estimates foresee greater growth than the UN Medium or WB estimates, based on higher estimates of population between 1985 and 2010.

 

Population Swaziland (000s) WB USCB United Nations Year     Medium High Low Constant 1950   277 273 273 273 273 1955   311 307 307 307 307 1960 349 352 349 349 349 349 1965 391 399 391 391 391 391 1970 446 455 446 446 446 446 1975 517 521 517 517 517 517 1980 603 611 603 603 603 603 1985 706 722 706 706 706 706 1990 864 882 864 864 864 864 1995 969 1,004 969 969 969 969 2000 1,080 1,144 1,080 1,080 1,080 1,080 2005 1,124 1,259 1,124 1,124 1,124 1,124 2010 1,202 1,354 1,202 1,202 1,202 1,202 2015 1,285 1,436 1,287 1,305 1,300 1,274 2020 1,373 1,513 1,376 1,429 1,413 1,339 2025 1,450 1,585 1,455 1,558 1,523 1,387 2030 1,518 1,651 1,524 1,694 1,626 1,423 2035 1,579 1,708 1,586 1,841 1,726 1,448 2040 1,637 1,756 1,644 2,009 1,831 1,463 2045 1,691 1,798 1,698 2,201 1,943 1,467 2050 1,742 1,834 1,749 2,419 2,061 1,463

Although there are small differences between the WB, USCB and UN Medium estimates for India the three main estimates are consistent with each other.